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THIS MONTH AT A GLANCE
Four signals shaping this month's decisions
Key shift
Supply chain focus is shifting from capacity alone to predictability, as changing ocean and air markets create greater uncertainty around transit times, routing options, and transport costs.
Capacity
Capacity remains available with planning, but usable space and service predictability vary by mode, route, and market.
Rates
Rate conditions are diverging by mode and trade lane, with selected air markets firming while ocean pricing remains mixed.
Watchpoint
Service reliability remains the key watchpoint as operational disruption and shifting demand continue to affect transit times and booking windows.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CUSTOMERS
Three moves customers should consider
Build resilience into transport planning
Available space does not always mean reliable service. Review where flexible routes, earlier bookings, or alternative services could help reduce the exposure to disruption.
Use mode selection as a strategic lever
As air and ocean conditions differ, match your transport choices to inventory value, customer commitments, and business priorities. The right mix can improve service and help manage overall supply chain costs.
Improve visibility before disruptions occur
A clearer view of transport performance, inventory exposure, and supplier activity helps you respond before market changes affect customers. Better visibility helps your supply chain adapt faster and stay competitive.
MODE SNAPSHOTS
Where each mode stands this month
Air Freight
- Global air capacity is only slightly above last year, while Gulf capacity remains around 20% below pre-February levels.
- Capacity is tightening on selected lanes as year-end demand grows, with Middle East disruption and flight cancellations adding further pressure.
Customer implication: Book priority shipments earlier and retain routing flexibility where tighter capacity, shortened booking windows, or Middle East disruption may affect time-sensitive cargo.
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Ocean Freight
- Capacity remains broadly available, but congestion, schedule disruption, and carrier capacity management continue to affect reliability.
- Pricing remains mixed, with Transpacific markets comparatively firm while Asia–Europe faces greater rate pressure.
Customer implication: Allow additional lead time for critical shipments and maintain carrier or routing alternatives where schedule reliability is important.
TRADE LANE SIGNALS
Indicative rate and capacity outlook for November 2026
Air freight
Trade lane | Rate outlook | Capacity |
Asia Pacific → North America | ▲ | ● |
Asia Pacific → EMEA | ━ | ● |
Intra-Asia Pacific | ▲ | ● |
EMEA → North America | ━ | ● |
EMEA → Asia Pacific | ━ | ● |
North America→ EMEA | ▼ | ● |
North America → Asia Pacific | ━ | ● |
RATE OUTLOOK ▲ Increasing ━ Stable ▼ Easing CAPACITY ● Improving availability ● Stable ● Tightening availability
Market indicators vary by trade lane, carrier, and service. Outlooks reflect Toll Global Forwarding’s current market view at publication and should not be relied upon as forecasts of actual rates, capacity, or service availability.
Ocean freight
Trade lane | Rate outlook | Capacity |
Asia Pacific → North America | ▲ | ● |
Asia Pacific → EMEA | ▼ | ● |
Intra-Asia Pacific | ━ | ● |
EMEA → North America | ━ | ● |
EMEA → Asia Pacific | ▼ | ● |
North America→ EMEA | ━ | ● |
North America → Asia Pacific | ━ | ● |
RATE OUTLOOK ▲ Increasing ━ Stable ▼ Easing CAPACITY ● Improving availability ● Stable ● Tightening availability
Market indicators vary by trade lane, carrier, and service. Outlooks reflect Toll Global Forwarding’s current market view at publication and should not be relied upon as forecasts of actual rates, capacity, or service availability.
FEATURE PERSPECTIVE
A closer look at the issues shaping supply chain decisions
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
This publication is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, regulatory, customs, tax, commercial, procurement or other professional advice. The information reflects market conditions and views as at the date of publication and may change without notice. Any forecasts, projections or forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and expectations and actual outcomes may differ materially. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this publication, Toll Global Forwarding, its affiliates, officers, employees and representatives make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. Recipients should make their own enquiries and obtain independent professional advice before making any business or operational decisions. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Toll Global Forwarding disclaims all liability for any loss arising from reliance on this publication or its contents. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without Toll Global Forwarding's prior written consent.
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